Did Our Experts Get it Right?
Last November, we asked five coaches to make a few predictions regarding the 2025/26 season outcome. Now it’s time to see just how those predictions matched end-of-season reality.
Simon Fourcade, Sverre Olsbu Roeiseland, Uros Velepec, Johannes Lukas and Siegfried Mazet chimed in last fall, hit a few right on the nose, and as in any prediction game…also missed a few times.
Question One: Who is the biggest threat to defending 2025 World Cup Total Score winner Sturla Holm Laegreid?
Velepec hit it in a season-defining comment. “Perrot is the guy who can win it all. He is a brilliant runner, fast shooter, he is very stable. Sturla is now defending and that is 100% harder than attacking like he was doing with Johannes.”
Mazet added, “I see it’s Eric Perrot, Tommy Giacomel. and one of the Norwegians.,, Still Eric is the biggest threat.” Perrot’s stability carried the day after Giacomel dropped out with his health issues. By the time Laegreid got going, he was too late to challenge.
Predictions
JL: Sturla, Sebastian and Eric, not in order especially. SR: Sturla, Eric and Sebbe SF: Eric, Quentin and Sturla UV: Eric, Sebbe, Uldal before Sturla. SM: Sturla, Eric, Tommy
Reality Check
Perrot, Laegreid, Johan-Olav Smoerdal Botn. Everyone picked Eric in the top three but only two tapped him as the winner and no one even mentioned Botn!
Question Two: If Franziska Preuss shoots like last season and stays healthy, will she win the Women’s Total Score?
The answers were a unanimous, yes.” With German Women’s Coach Roeiseland summing up with maybe a premonition, “She had some more problems this year with the finger, but has done a good job with training. Her main focus is the Olympics. I know she can have the same or even better season than last year. I have big respect for Lou (Jeanmonnot), in my eyes, she and Franzi were both winners last year.”
Predictions
JL: Oeberg (not saying which one), Preuss and Vittozzi SR: Franzi, Lou, Lisa. SF: Not in Order: Preuss, Lou, Ocean Michelon UV: Preuss, then French women 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th. SM: Preuss, Jeanmonnot and Vittozzi.
Reality Check
Jeanmonnot, Hanna Oeberg and Vittozzi. Everyone missed the mark. Of course, no one back in November expected imagined that Preuss would retire immediately after Milan/Cortina, leaving Jeanmonnot in total control. Lukas’ Oeberg prediction proved correct, with both sisters in a tightly bunched 2nd – 5th .
Question Three: Rising star of the season?
Three of the five picked Under 23 winner Isaak Leknes Frey. Total Score third place Olympic Gold medalist Botn was not even a thought before the season Unsurprisingly, Mazet saw this coming. “Isaak Frey will create some surprises; he is a real biathlete, good physically with good strategy on the range. He has knowledge some others may not get for four or five years, very mature for his age. Johannes Thingnes Boe and Martin Fourcade were both like this.”
He also picked Olympic Mass Start Gold medalist Oceane Michelon adding, “Oceane Michelon is in the same situation. I do not know her at all, but her name was the first I thought of.”
Reality Check
Botn, Martin Uldal, Frey; Michelon, Olympic Sprint Gold medalist Maren Kirkeeide, Camille Bened. The “kids” outperformed everyone’s expectations with three Olympic Gold medals going to the next generation!
All five offered good insight about their own teams as well as the talent of their rivals, emphasizing one thing, “stay healthy.” The veteran Simon Fourcade confirmed their shared philosophy that delivered medals and Crystal Globes, “have confidence and trust in the work that was done to get the best performances.”
Photos: IBU/Christian Manzoni, Yevenko, Deubert, Wizor
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