Who Will Rule in the New Season: The Expert’s Picks

The BMW IBU World Cup season kicks off next Tuesday in Kontiolahti with the men’s 20 km individual as the opening salvo in the Yellow Bib battle that will continue until March 19, 2023.

Before the first shot is fired, our panel of experts shared their thoughts:

Arnd Peiffer, Olympic Champion, ARD commentator

Erik Lesser, Olympic Silver medalist, ARD commentator

Dario Puppo, Eurosport commentator

Stefan Steinacher, Winter sports expert, Hochfilzen stadium announcer

Helena Ekholm, 2009 World Cup Total Score titlist, SVT Sport commentator

Weronika Nowakowska, Two-time IBU WCH medalist, TVP Sport Expert Commentator

Question 1: Can Quentin Fillon Maillet win the Men’s Total Score again or will Johannes Thingnes Boe take the title back?

Lesser summed this up best, “This is the main question of the season. It will be a close finish with the better ending for Johannes. It`s not that Quentin is not good enough but Johannes is able to perform on a bit higher level. In the Sjusjoen season opener, I saw Johannes prone shooting, fast and clean, the key to much better races for him since it was his only weakness.”

Peiffer concurred, “JT will be highly motivated after focusing on the Olympics last season.” Steinacher added with a qualifier, “I think Johannes will be extremely hot to fight back, but the new Number 1 in Biathlon remains Quentin.”

Puppo added some interesting information, favoring the Norwegian. “I find it very hard for Fillon Maillet to defend his title. Especially in light of how JT did some "smart work" ahead of the season: installing a home treadmill, similar to what Bjoerndalen a few years ago. When Ole Einar found out how much JT used it, he is said to have been truly impressed. I think JT has invested a lot to train well and still be with his family. I see him as the favourite.”

Nowakowska who visited several training camps this summer leans towards multiple potential winners. “I see more candidates than Quentin and JT, including Sturla Holm Laegreid, Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen, Tarjei Boe and Sebastian Samuelsson.”

Ekholm reminded that, although she favors the Norwegian, it is unlikely to be a runaway. “I think it will be a hard fight this year but I put my money on Johannes!”

Men’s Top 3

Peiffer: JT, Sebastian Samuelsson, Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen

Lesser: JT, Fillon Maillet, a surprising Norwegian (like every year)

Puppo: JT, Emilien Jacquelin, Fillon Maillet

Steinacher: Fillon Maillet, JT, Lukas Hofer

Ekholm: JT, Fillon Maillet, Samuelsson

Question 2: Will the Women’s Total Score go to an Oeberg sister…or?

Ekholm, who was at the Swedish season opener had no doubt, answering, “Yes.”

Lesser expounded, “I don’t know who can beat them. Marte and Tiril won’t compete; Doro is good but not that fast. Braisaz is on maternity leave. Only Denise is in a position to sneak in the Yellow Bib but I am not sure she’s consistent enough.

Puppo leaned towards Elvira, “I think Elvira Oeberg will benefit from the new points' system. Roeiseland could be a contender, but has trained little and has not been on snow much, so I think the Oeberg sisters are the favourites, with Elvira having a slight edge.”

Steinacher leans towards Roeiseland although she will miss Kontiolahti. “I do not think either Oeberg will win; Marte is the most consistent of all the women.”

Like Steinacher, Nowakowska leans away from an Oeberg victory. “I think Herrmann, Elvira and Anais Chevalier-Bouchet are in this fight

Women’s Top 3

Ekholm: Elvira, Herrmann, Wierer

Lesser: Elvira, Hanna, Herrmann

Peiffer: Elvira, Roeiseland, Hanna

Puppo: Elvira, Hanna, Roeiseland

Steinacher: Roeiseland, Elvira, Herrmann

Nowakowska: Herrmann, Elvira, Chevalier-Bouchet

Question 3: Which individual will be the biggest surprise?

Lesser: “I`m excited to see next steps of Eric Perrot. He took some nice development in the past season. Another is Martin Uldal. I don’t know where he’s competing. I had a short talk with him in Oslo. What he’s doing with his weapon is crazy, crazy new.”

Puppo: “I think we could have a big surprise from some of the youngsters of the French and Norwegian teams. I am also keeping my eyes on Tilda Johansson who was really good in Idre, but it will be tough for her to find room in a packed Swedish world cup team. I doubt we will get major surprises from Anamarija Lampič, as she will need time, though she is highly competitive, so you never know. But I stick to the women field for this category.”

Nowakowska: “I expect a big comeback from Lisa Vittozzi.”

Peiffer: “Maren Kirkeeide could be in the top 6.”

Steinacher: “Watch Anna Gandler, Anna Juppe and the youngsters from Switzerland and Italy.”

Question 4: What are the prospects for your home country’s team?

Regarding the German team, the recently retired Lesser commented, “I know the strengths and weakness of the German team. We often showed more weakness than strength. I`m positive with the two new coaches that the mental strength is much better. Denise is the biggest player for the women; Franzi was injured or sick all summer. The men’s team is strong enough to have Benni, Johannes Kuehn and Philipp Horn in the top 10. Peiffer concurred, adding, “Denise and Benni are the strongest; it will possibly be their last season which could give them extra energy.

Puppo, a close follower of the Italians said, “I believe both Wierer and Vittozzi can be steadily among top 10-15 if they feel well. I expect better results than last season, with similar expectations from Tomaso Giacomel. We need to be patient with Hofer; he will peak later after a troubled summer, that included shoulder surgery. The new guard on the women’s side will need a little time to catch up with the World Cup level, similarly to what is happening on the men’s team.

Austria, according to Steinacher, “I believe that Felix Leitner will be better; he is happy with the new trainer team. However, it will certainly take 4 to 6 years to have a strong men’s team again. Lisa Hauser had health problems in the summer, but I´m sure she will achieve top results and podiums. The Austrian ladies will achieve the BEST results now and in the coming years.”

Nowakowska thinks Poland, with a limited number of veterans, “is rebuilding with a lot of young athletes, so it is hard to predict.”

Ekholm thinks Sweden will challenge for a Nations Cup. “The Women’s team is really strong again this year. I would be surprised if they don't win the Nations Cup. The men are a bit higher and lower, but I hope for better shooting for some of the guys; then they will have good results. Samuelsson can be in the fight for the big globe.”

It all begins on Tuesday…

Photos: IBU Photopool