Simon, Braisaz-Bouchet and Vittozzi set for the Total Score showdown

We analysed the data from the four individual competitions at the BMW IBU World Championships in Nove Mesto to find the trends that might decide the battle for the Total Score as the season heads into its third and final semester, starting in Oslo-Holmenkollen, continuing in Soldier Hollow and finishing in Canmore.

Women: Nove Mesto changed everything

Ingrid Landmark Tandrevold traveled to the BMW IBU World Championships as the Total Score leader. She had 719 points and won 51 points per competition in Trimesters 1 and 2. Tandrevold’s form trajectory started showing worrying signs in Antholz-Anterselva: she collected just 53 points - or 26.5 per competition - from the Short Individual and Mass Start. Struggling with the standing shooting (57% accuracy in Nove Mesto), Tandrevold finished 24th on average in the four individual competitions in Nove Mesto, which would have won her just 17 points per competition in the World Cup in Trimester 3.

Elvira Oeberg’s (she is fifth in the Total Score) performance in Nove Mesto was just a notch better than Tandrevold’s: for an athlete who won 44 points per competition in the first 14 races in the World Cup, 19th place on average in Nove Mesto- which would have won her just 21 points per competition in the World Cup - was a disappointment.

TOTAL SCORE FORM TREND WOMEN: AFTER TRIMESTER 2 - SEASON'S END PROJECTION

In stark contrast to the Scandinavian Total Score contenders, Julia Simon, Justine Braisaz-Bouchet, Lisa Vittozzi, and Lou Jeanmonnot had a superb two weeks in Nove Mesto. With Jeanmonnot most probably out of the contest for the Total Score win due to the illness that started to affect her in Hochfilzen and prevented her from competing in two competitions in Lenzerheide, Simon, Braisaz-Bouchet and Vittozzi look set for a spectacular showdown in the last three weeks of the season.

If their Nove Mesto form holds, Simon would win 504 points (72 points per competition) in Trimester 3 and finish the season with 1,166 points. Braisaz-Bouchet would win 455 points (65 points per competition) in Trimester 3 and finish the season with 1,144 points. Vittozzi would win 483 points (69 points per competition) in Trimester 3 and finish the season with 1,100 points.

Each of the in-form athletes has a distinctive advantage: Simon is the best closer of the competitions, Braisaz-Bouchet is the best skier (out of the 18 laps in the four individual competitions in Nove Mesto, she clocked 11 fastest times), Vittozzi the most accurate shooter (98.5% accuracy in Nove Mesto).

There is, of course, a new drama every day in biathlon. And things can turn on a dime. But trends are clear.

Men: Nove Mesto changed nothing

Despite Benedikt Doll winning a bronze in the Individual, Andrejs Rastorgujevs a silver, and Quentin Fillon Maillet bronze in the Mass Start, Norwegian men kept a firm grip over the men’s field as they won 9 from 12 individual medals in Nove Mesto.

TOTAL SCORE FORM TREND MEN: AFTER TRIMESTER 2 - SEASON'S END PROJECTION

JT Boe was the Total Score leader with 806 points after the first two trimesters, Johannes Dale-Skjevdal was second with 714 points, and Tarjei Boe was third with 708 points. JT Boe was the Athlete of the Championships with three gold medals and a silver. If his form from Nove Mesto holds, Johannes would win 602 points (an incredible 86 points per competition) in Trimester 3 and finish the season with 1,408 points for his fifth Total Score title. Tarjei would win 364 points (52 points per competition) and finish the season with 1,072 points. Dale-Skjevdal fell sick before the Mass Start, but - considering his performance in the Sprint, Pursuit, and Individual in Nove Mesto - he would be no match for Tarjei, let alone Johannes Thingnes, but would keep his Top 3 finish.