As the new BMW IBU World Cup Biathlon season approaches, it is time to bring out the Crystal Ball for a glimpse at “who will rule” and who will chase over the next four months.

Norway’s Depth

The first revelation, unsurprisingly was a Norwegian flag. No way around one fact: Norway has the talent, experience and unmatched depth. As Coach Egil Kristiansen said this summer, “Norway will always have biathletes and cross-country skiers” and huge pool to choose from. Depth? Norway’s recruit team captured the top five spots the IBU Cup Total Score, matching the World Cup team’s 1-5 sweep!

JT…Period

Not belaboring the obvious, JT Boe’s face pops out first from the prediction fog; the current king will likely remain so. JT is a significant notch above virtually anyone else on the tracks, tactically as well as frequently on the range. Although last season was down in terms of wins, 11 compared to the 19 in 2022/23, he remains the gold standard among the men. As the chasers get closer, the five-time World Cup Total Score titlist needs to step back into the 88%+ category on the range. He spent much of the year training at home, and was not particularly sharp, 10th and 17th in Season Opener with two and five penalties. Not pleased with his effort, JT admitted to being tired, “needing more rest and sleep” before Kontiolahti. JT with 73 World Cup wins will likely be ready to continue pursuing Ole Einar Bjoerndalen’s record 94 wins, once the BMW IBU World Cup season begins.

Tarjei and Sturla

Last season, JT’s elder brother Tarjei was his top sparring partner, sharing the podium on multiple occasions while challenging for the number 1 spot. Tarjei’s Total Score second place and Sprint Score title made 2023/24 his second best season ever after his Total Score-winning 2010/11 year. Like his brother, Tarjei was away from the team for much of the summer, getting married and enjoying family time. Approaching his 16th World Cup season, expect Tarjei to stay in the mix, but it might be a stretch for the 36-year-old to have a better year.

Sturla Holm Laegreid was second in the Total Score three consecutive years until falling to fourth last season, where most notably, his shooting “tanked” from 91% to 87%. Those four points are crucial to his success. Even in a down season, Laegreid ended on a high note, taking the IBU WCH Sprint Gold medal and winning decisively the Oslo Individual and Mass Start at season’s end.

Johannes Dale-Skjevdal and Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen remain a small step back. Dale continued his comeback from an IBU Cup demotion with six podiums. Although he did not look good in the Season Opener, Dale-Skjevdal’s best days come when the stakes are high, like World Cup competitions.

Big Year ahead for Vetle?

Christiansen likewise is tough on the tracks. After being dropped from the World Cup team for Oberhof, he came back with a vengeance, hitting 29-of-30 shots for first and second in the Ruhpolding Sprint and Mass Start, respectively. He started this season with a clean-shooting sprint win and a two-penalty mass start second in Sjusjoen. The 32-year-old might be the best-prepared Norwegian in Kontiolahti. Christiansen is always solid on the tracks; if his shooting holds up, the sky is the limit.

Jacquelin and Fillon Maillet

The faces in the Crystal Ball beyond the Norwegians are a bit fuzzier, considering sixth place Emilien Jacquelin was 550 points behind JT and 105 behind Christiansen. Still, the enigmatic French star comes out of the fog as usual, with big hopes resting on seven top tens including 3 podiums the end of last season. He also won the French Summer Champs Sprint title in late October. Jacquelin was pleased after 6th and 10th places in Sjusjoen. “The form and watts are there. That’s good for the future.” If Jacquelin starts the season like Sjusjoen, he could crack the Norwegian dominance.

2022 Total Score titlist Quentin Fillon Maillet finished out of the title race the past two seasons, but feels he is on track to battle once again. After two wins in the final French Summer Tour competitions in late October, he admitted to “some mistakes” in his preparations the past two seasons. Confidence restored; the French star was “happy with quite a few things” after 9th in the Sjusjoen Mass Start. Fillon Maillet earlier told Nordic Magazine he wants an individual Gold medal in Lenzerheide and a “place in the general classification (Total Score) which will be a real fight.” If Fillon Maillet returns to his 89% shooting of 2022, his goals are reachable.

Samuelsson's Big Sprint

Beyond the French duo, Sebastian Samuelsson jumps out of the foggy predictions with his annual goal to challenge JT Boe and take his Norwegian foe “out of his comfort zone.” Samuelsson had a brilliant sprint, burying the field by 56 seconds in Idre with one penalty. That kind of effort and a strong range presence are Samuelsson’s keys to challenging JT.

Many other faces that appear in the Crystal Ball; young Tommy Giacomel and Eric Perrot both were impressive in Sjusjoen with top 10s. Germany’s Philipp Nawrath wore Yellow for a cup of coffee last season, enough to make him hungry for more. Any number of men have talent and potential. Until proven otherwise, as we put the Crystal Ball down, the lasting image remains a Norwegian flag.

Photos: IBU/ Christian Manzoni, Nordic Focus