Who can beat Johannes Thingnes Boe?

JT Boe worked harder than ever in the summer and hit a streak of skiing excellence rarely seen in biathlon. His shooting accuracy is also the highest in JT's career. With 11 wins in 14 BMW IBU World cup competitions, the most intriguing question before the start of the men’s program in Oberhof 2023 must be: How to beat Johannes?

The Methodology

We have used all the competition data for the Top 15 athletes from the 5 Sprints and Pursuits from Trimesters 1 and 2.

For each competition and athlete, we analysed the following metrics:

  - skiing time (seconds behind leader and gap between JT Boe and every other athlete);

  - shooting time (the gap between JT Boe and every other athlete);

  - average penalty time per athlete per competition;

  - for pursuit races, the start time difference to JT Boe (he started all 5 pursuits first out of the gate);

  - ski speed for every athlete.

We then aggregated all data points per athlete and per discipline. In the end, we used the aggregate to analyse and visualise JT Boe's margins on his competitors individually and as a group of his challengers.

Key takeaways

Average ski speed gap in seconds

1. In the Sprint, JT Boe is 125.1 seconds faster than the average of the field.

2. In the Pursuit, JT Boe is 61.2 seconds faster than the average of the field.

Average ski speed in km/h

1. In the Sprint. JT Boe’s average ski speed is 27.7 km/h compared to 25.3 km/h for the rest of the field.

2. In the Pursuit, JT Boe’s average ski speed is 26.4 km/h compared to 25.5 km/h for the rest of the field.

Average ski speed gap in meters

1. In the Sprint, JT Boe is on average gaining 0.53 meters every second over average of the field.

2. In the Pursuit, JT Boe is on average gaining 0.25 meters every second over average of the field.

Shooting: A (small) window of opportunity for others

1. In the Sprint,  JT Boe is 10 seconds slower than the fastest shooter. Rest of the field is 15 seconds  slower than the fastest shooter.

2. In the Pursuit, JT Boe is 19 seconds slower than the fastest shooter. Rest of the field is 24.6 seconds slower than the fastest shooter.

Penalty loop: JT gains over the rest (again)

1. In the Sprint, JT Boe skis a penalty loop in 20.7 seconds compared to 22.3 seconds for the rest of the field.

2. In the Pursuit, JT Boe skis a penalty loop in 21.4 seconds compared to 22.5 seconds for the rest of the field.

What Laegreid (and Jacquelin) needs to do and hope for

This chart explains - step by step - the margin between JT Boe and Sturla Holm Laegreid and Emilien Jacquelin as his - perhaps - most dangerous challengers in Oberhof. We analysed Jacquelin as somebody who has JT's number when they find each other shoulder-to-shoulder on the shooting range or in the tracks and because he will aim to win back-to-back-to-back Pursuit titles in Oberhof.

Based on data analysis from Trimesters 1 and 2, JT Boe is unbeatable in the Sprint if he hits nine targets (or 10) because his combined skiing time, shooting time, pursuit start time, and penalty loop time (with by far the most considerable contributor his skiing) averages give him a 37.4-second (279 meters) advantage over the closest challenger - Sturla Holm Laegreid - before the competition begins.

Encouraging news for Laegreid: JT won just twice in the Sprint in Oberhof while Laegreid collected three podiums in his two full-time seasons in the BMW IBU World Cup (2020/2021 and 2021/2022). JT tends to get tense when the wind gusts become unpredictable. Which is often the case in Arena am Rennsteig's shooting range.

Laegreid needs to shoot clean and ski with the speed average from Trimesters 1 and 2 and hope that Boe misses 2 targets in the Sprint and 3 in the Pursuit - to have a chance to win. And take a Gold medal in Oberhof.

Jacquelin's chances for a third consecutive Pursuit Gold seem quite remote as he needs a perfect race and JT one with four misses.

Graphics and analysis: Biathlon Analytics