Preuss holds a 92-point edge, with two sprints and five four-stage competitions remaining. Health and fatigue after the IBU World Championships is crucial in the women’s and men’s races. Preuss’ gap gives some breathing room, but a total disaster like Oberhof’s 28th and 20th places could turn the tide to Jeanmonnot. The German holds the shooting range upper hand, 92% and only four penalties out of seventy shots, compared to Jeanmonnot’s 90% and nine penalties at the IBU WCH. On the tracks, the advantage swings to Jeanmonnot. Taking only the Lenzerheide Sprint and Mass Start plus the Antholz Pursuit, the 26-year-old dominated with 5th, 4th and 3rd fastest ski times to Preuss’ 15th, 6th and 18th.

Preuss’ overall advantage has been her consistency with 16 Flower Ceremonies/Podiums while Jeanmonnot has 11. No surprise if this is decided in the Oslo Mass Start.

Sturla vs. JT

These two have been here before, back in 2021, on opposite sides of the standings. That season, JT led by 32 points going into the last trimester; this year Laegreid leads by 48 points. Back then, Laegreid was 4 points back going into the season-ending Mass Start. The difference this time around is simple: JT was hot in late December, on the podium in every Hochfilzen and Annecy Le Grand Bornand competition, including three wins. He cooled in January with two 3rd places. On the other side, Laegreid had a significantly better January with two victories in four podiums, sweeping to the lead in the Antholz Sprint, opening the gap with a Mass Start victory. At the IBU WCH, JT took the Sprint/Pursuit double and Bronze behind Laegreid’s Mass Start Silver (his only individual medal). Laegreid’s dominates the range with a career-best 92% to JT’s 85%. On the flip side, JT rules the tracks, with the top time on many days.

These teammates love the mano a mano matchup; JT may have an adrenalin edge, fighting for his 6th Total Score win, while Laegreid will have many more opportunities in his career. This will be a nail-biter: will speed or accuracy carry the day?