Data's Total Score favourites

We did a deep dive into the performance of the BMW IBU World Cup's best athletes for the past three seasons, using key metrics that define a Total Score winner or challenger.

Based on the crunched numbers, we also composed a table that breaks down the athletes into favourites, their principal challengers, and the athletes who would want to regain their winning ways in the 2022/2023 season.

Analysis's benchmarks

As a starting point, we analysed Women's and Men's Total Score Winners for 2019/20, 2020/21, and 2021/22 seasons based on the following season-average statistics:

M1 Shooting percentage accuracy (based on total targets closed, divided by all shots taken)

M2 Shooting percentage consistency (based on the population variance)

M3 Shooting percentage highs & lows (difference between the highest and the lowest shooting percentage)

M4 Skiing time/speed (skiing speed of the athlete compared to the average skiing speed of the field)

M5 Range time (range time compared to the average range time)

M6 Shooting time (shooting time compared to the average shooting time)

Grey bandwidths in Chart 2 indicate the areas used to determine baseline values for six benchmarks (M1-M6).

In short: performing in the grey bandwidth - or above it - in as many of these measures as possible gives an athlete above average chance of winning the Total Score title.

Favourites and challengers

We then analysed the athletes that either:

- outperformed the benchmarks,

- were close to the benchmarks;

- missed them last year but outperformed them on average in the last three years.

At the end we compiled a list of favorites, challengers, and athletes who would want to regain their form to fight for the Total Score title in the coming winter.

Data and visuals: Robert Weise, Biathlon Analytics