Looking at the mass start, biathlon’s ultimate head-to-head battle with the 30 best in the sport in tactical horse race where the final standing stage many times determines who gets the top spot on the podium.

This competition always involves some kind of strategy. By the mass start day, each of the 30 starters knows what the pecking order looks like: who won the medals and is confident, as well as who is tired and hoping for a miracle. There are mental and physical tactics in play. The group usually holds together in the first loop; one of the favorites has a disaster in the first prone when half the field shoots clean. One of the big names takes control, asserting dominance before the second prone when usually a small group separates itself from the field. The pace is going up all the time and there is a lot of looking around, gauging the competition. Two clean prone stages is a good step to the podium; less than that means hard work. The first standing usually tightens up the field, but the cream is rising to the top. If someone feels spectacular, the pace might go up to get a safety gap before the last standing. If not, 90% of the time, the last standing determines the podium: aggressive shooting reigns. If all five go down, hammer down on the last loop. It might be one person flying to the finish line, if it is that perfect day. Or it might be Fourcade and Emil Hegle Svendsen in Sochi playing cat-and mouse and then a desperate finish line lunge by Fourcade as Svendsen raises his arms in victory.

Two NamesThe mass starts are the toughest to preview, because the final field is a mix of the best of the World Cup Total Score and the top performers at the OWG. Yet, before the provisional start list is ever posted, two names stand out: Martin Fourcade and Darya Domracheva. They own the best career records (13 wins for Fourcade and 9 for Domracheva) and both won the final tune-up mass start in Antholz. Yet, only one of them, Domracheva is the defending champion from Sochi.

Never Gets RattledFourcade’s mass start success (and in other competitions) is derived from his many well-known assets, but one thing stands out in every one of his competitions. Things may not go his way, like an early inexcusable penalty…but he never gets rattled. He is always calm, adjusts his plan and tactics and moves on. That is what happened in Antholz. His record and season so far makes him the favorite as of today.

Emil, Serious Podium ThreatThe French star’s old rival Svendsen was seventh in Antholz few weeks ago. The Norwegian had one more penalty than Fourcade, but still seems like he will have a good shot in Pyeongchang. Svendsen’s brilliant Antholz pursuit, coming from 32nd to 5th with clean shooting shows he still has the right stuff. He remains a serious podium threat, even though his last victory was over three years ago.

His teammate Johannes has eight wins this season including the Ruhpolding mass start. The 2016 IBU World Champion has all of the tools including spectacular ski speed to win this competition. Although much more mature in his approach to shooting this season, there are still occasional lapses, note five Antholz penalties! However his amazing ski speed found him just 29.5 seconds behind the winner at the finish line. Yes, Fourcade did slow down and enjoy the finish, but add no more than 15-20 seconds. If Johannes is close, this will be another great last standing stage and last loop!

Title Defense for DashaDomracheva like her Fourcade has the most mass start wins (9) of the women in Korea. Two rivals, Kaisa Mäkäräinen and Laura Dahlmeier each have three on their resume. The Belarusian also asserted herself with and Antholz win, in her won typical style, a comeback from an early penalty to steadily move up in the field. She eventually capitalized on her own clean shooting while others toured the penalty loop. Like Fourcade, the Sochi triple Gold medalist stayed focused while never panicking both important mass start skills. “From the beginning of the race, it was very important to be focused on shooting. I was not worried about the other athletes; I had to just do my job.”That was her only mass start win this season, but it showed progress to a February peak, both on the range and tracks. Domracheva will be under huge pressure, but has been there before so she could repeat.

Laura and KaisaDahlmeier is the reigning IBU Mass Start World Champion and was the runner-up in 2016 and leads the World Cup Mass Start Score. She can shoot clean and is strong on the tracks, but is at her best when leading and maintaining that lead. If the German is in Hochfilzen form in ten days, she will be a prime Gold medal candidate.

Nastya and JustineAnastasiya Kuzmina was second in that Antholz mass start. She has the ski power and is shooting better this year. If it turns into a ski race, she could be in the mix. Young Justine Braisaz won the Le Grand Bornand mass start in a highly charged home stadium atmosphere as it will be in Pyeongchang. Another surprise form this young talent would actually be no surprise.

Those are some of the big names and the strategies involved in the mass start. However, it will all come down to who is actually on the starting line, is mentally and physically fresh, maybe has that “perfect race” at the perfect time and ends up with an Olympic Gold medal.