On Valentine’s Day and the day after, February 14 and 15, all eyes will be focused on the two longest and toughest biathlon events on the Olympic Winter Games schedule and the two defending Olympic Champions, Martin Fourcade and Darya Domracheva.

This original and oldest biathlon competition is the ultimate combination of accurate shooting and endurance. The four shooting stages (prone, standing, prone, standing) will be the major focus; it is not about shooting fast, but accurately. Each missed target adds one minute to the final time; more than one missed shot almost eliminates any chance of the podium, let alone a Gold medal. The key is to shoot at a steady but controlled cadence, not too fast with such a large penalty at stake. A few extra seconds for each shot can be made up on the tracks with a strong but not sprint-worthy pace. A one-minute penalty is not impossible to overcome, but a tough order. In the two individual competitions this season, only Fourcade with two penalties in Östersund made it to the podium. The other 11 on the podium either shot clean or had a single penalty. No question, these two competitions are about the shooting!

Dasha on Valentine’s DayThe weekend sprint/ pursuit will have set the stage for the individual competitions by the time February 14 rolls around. Still, the 15K will be an opportunity for Domracheva to defend another of her Sochi titles. Although she has four career victories in this competition, Sochi is her only major title in the 15K. She did have a single penalty in that Gold medal competition, but outskied clean-shooting Silver medalist Selina Gasparin and teammate Nadezhda Skardino by more than a minute. In both individuals this season, the Belarusian skied well but had two and three penalties, denying her the podium. However, her shooting looked more confident in Antholz, especially in the mass start, where after single prone penalty, the next 15 targets closed easily. Domracheva’s strength from a good summer of training will be a factor; she may not be quite the fastest woman on the tracks, but can hold a high effort comfortably over the distance. If the defending champ stays calm and focused, she should be in the medals.

Doro and KaisaDorothea Wierer’s clean shooting won the Ruhpolding 15K by a mere 12.7 seconds over Kaisa Mäkäräinen who had a single penalty. That is probably the story for these two top women: Wierer, if in the groove, will shoot faster and probably clean; Mäkäräinen will ski faster and miss a shot or two. Wierer owns four career victories; three are in the 15K. Mäkäräinen has 22 career wins; two are in the 15K. Neither owns an individual Olympic medal, but Mäkäräinen has a WCH Bronze in the 15K. Both had good Januarys, seemed primed for these Games, and should have a good shot at a medal.

Laura and NadezhdaLaura Dahlmeier won the IBU WCH title last February in Hochfilzen, with a single penalty. Her 15K track record includes three wins in a 19-win career. Her standing shooting is at 91% and prone at 89% this season; that translates into two penalties and an uphill battle to the podium. Her physical strength should serve her well to keep Dahlmeier in the medal battle The 24-year-old German did not go to Korea for a holiday, so expect her to be in the medals battle.

Domracheva’s teammate Nadezhda Skardino won the Bronze medal in the 15K individual in Sochi, with guess what…clean shooting. No surprise there, the Belarusian hit 76 of 80 shots in January, won the small crystal Globe for the individual (1st Östersund, 7th Ruhpolding, shooting clean in both), and is hitting 97% in prone, 91% in standing this season. Her downside is lack of ski speed, but clean shooting will take this lady with the big smile a long way towards the podium and a second OWG medal.

And…Lots of ladies could do well and grab a nice Valentine’s gift, including Anais Bescond, Vita Semerenko, Juliya Dzhyma, and Veronika Vitkova. Should any of the big names falter, look for one of these ladies to step up, especially with a 20-for-20 day.

Martin, the 20K MasterFourcade has won the major titles in the 20K individual in four of the past five seasons, including the Sochi Gold medal. His only “failure” was last season’s IBU WCH Bronze medal, when he had two penalties and finished 21.2 seconds behind Lowell Bailey of the USA. He tied Johannes for the small crystal globe this season, with each winning one competition. That record alone should make the French star the favorite to defend his title. Fourcade’s Ruhpolding win, with a single penalty a few weeks ago emphasized his dominance in the 20K: one penalty and a minute faster than Johannes on the tracks.

This competition suits Fourcade perfectly. He is the master of shooting slowly when necessary to drop every target; this season his shooting is at a career high 91%. Of course he is human and does miss. Still, his cool style on the shooting range fits this classic perfectly. On the tracks, his big summer training volume carries him at a pace that few can handle over the five loops; he generally starts a bit conservative and picks up the pace with each ensuing loop. Unless there is a big failure out of his control, Martin Fourcade should win this Gold medal.

Johannes in the ChaseJohannes Thingnes Boe has 21 career victories, with only one in this event, a clean-shooting title at Östersund in December. In the past, his rather jumpy too-fast shooting style has hampered him in the 20K. However, he now is much more controlled on the range and hits more standing shots these days. No doubt he is better in the sprint than any other competition, but this young Norwegian has the tools: good focus and excellent ski speed to do well in the 20K. The difference between him and Fourcade may simply be years and training; the five year older Fourcade has more kilometers in his background and more experience; those are always important in biathlon success. It is a long process. Johannes and Fourcade traded World Cup wins, but on February 15 Johannes will possibly get a medal, but Gold will be a tall order.

Fak’s ChanceJakov Fak owns an Olympic Sprint Bronze medal and IBU WCH titles in the 20K and the mass start. Coming back from illness, this could be his year for an Olympic 20K medal. Although he had some in-season illness that slowed him a little, Fak is the Nadezhda Skardino of the men’s field. He dropped 94 of 100 targets in January, 94%! The Slovenian did not have the ski speed so far to match Fourcade or Johannes, but presumably he will have picked up a few seconds by next week. His OWG and WCH success and the distant memory of his 2009 IBU WCH Bronze in the 20K on these same Pyeongchang tracks will be factors in Fak’s medal run.

Sochi Silver Medalist ErikErik Lesser won the 20K Silver medal in Sochi. He started this season with sprint podium in Östersund and a mass start second place in le Grand Bornand. Lesser, if he slows down his cadence just a small amount can shoot clean as in France. He jokes about Fourcade and Johannes always finishing ahead of him, yet in this case, he would probably be pretty happy with another medal, even if it is Bronze!

Emil and the AustriansBeside Fourcade, there will be another OWG 20K Gold medalist in Pyeongchang: 2010 Champion Emil Hegle Svendsen. He may not get the 20K start, but if he does, this guy can shoot clean and has the power and strength for this rigorous competition. Then there are a couple of Austrian sharpshooters, Dominik Landertinger and Simon Eder, 5th and 4th in Sochi respectively. Both had single penalties in Ruhpolding last month for 6th and 7th. Landertinger is behind schedule this season after November back surgery but has returned quite strong. Eder, like his teammate has a solid resume filled with WCH and OWG medals; he is at his best in these kinds of competitions. At the same time, this rapid-firing veteran is shooting at a career-high 89%. Both sometimes shoot too fast, but if they are on-target, a medal or high finish is not out of the question.

Beyond this group, there are plenty of men who can shoot clean and vie for the podium. In both the women’s 15K and the men’s 20K; it will be the shooting that determines who wears the Gold medal at the end of the day.