Twelve day of spectacular, thrilling biathlon competitions at these Milano Cortina 2026 Olympic Winter Games will be capped off by what should be two days of highly competitive Mass Starts; the final chances for individual Olympic glory at these Games.

A lot will depend on who has anything left in the tank after multiple high-stress competitions in Antholz’s thin air. Perfect or near-perfect (like 19-of-20 shooting) and having some extra power for the last loop will determine the medalists. That has pretty much been the story of the competitions so far.

The Men: Gold medallists Prevail or…

The three individual Gold medallists, Johan-Olav Botn, Quentin Fillon Maillet and Martin Ponsiluoma all shot brilliantly in their wins. Botn and Fillon Maillet struggled after that. The Swede who normally is suspect in standing shot way over his head in the pursuit and relay, going 15-for-15. He also comes into the competition as the 2022 Silver medalist, so could prevail, especially with his superior ski speed. Fillon Maillet has a fistful of Antholz podiums and a history of 43 4-stage career podiums (including 13 victories).

Beyond those going for their second individual Gold medals, there are four likely candidates, “the usual suspects.” The two young guns, Eric Perrot and Tommaso Giacomel have convincing Mass Start wins this season. After his shoulder-shrug 4th place in the Pursuit, admitting he could not do more, watch the Yellow Bib to attack early a la Jacquelin to go after another Gold medal after the stunning Relay win Tuesday. Giacomel, totally disappointed with his home OWG and after four spares in the relay will likely go after it. He has nothing to lose; if he relaxes and the form of Annecy le Grand and Oberhof show up, anything is possible.

The other two prime candidates are Vetle Sjaastad Christiansen and Sebastian Samuelsson. Christiansen has been solid in his OWG starts and has been consistently good all season. Keep in mind: he won the 2024 Antholz Mass Start knows and how to handle the 15 km at 1600 meters. Throw in Samuelsson. Although this has not been the OWG of his dreams, he shot well in standing in the Bronze-medal relay effort, won the season-ending Oslo Mass Start last year and owns a World Championship in the discipline. If his shooting holds up like teammate and sparring partner Ponsiluoma in the last two competitions, Samuelsson’s ski speed will take him to the podium.

The Women: Shootout at the Südtirol Arena

The women’s competition will most likely be determined in a shootout, four times zero will prevail. Three women: Lisa Vittozzi, Lora Hristova and Suvi Minkkinen shot clean in two competitions here. Maren Kirkeeide, Lou Jeanmonnot, Julia Simon, and Oceane Michelon have a zero day on their OWG resume.

Simon was brilliant in the Relay so watch out. She has the ski speed to rock this one and owns five career Mass Start wins, including two at Antholz. She has to be the favourite!

Vittozzi has one Gold medal and now the pressure is off. A relaxed Vittozzi could easily drop all twenty targets and ski away to Gold as she did in the Pursuit. Minkkinen is the journeywoman who skillfully closes targets; no mass start podiums on her resume, but this might be the time to start!

Jeanmonnot badly wants an individual Gold medal. She has a full set of Milano Cortina medals including chocolate in the Pursuit, but her Golds are in the Relay and Mixed Relay. Her normal state is intensely focused; 20-for-20 puts her battling for the top spot.

Beyond this group, look for Dorothea Wierer despite her Relay meltdown. This is her last chance and she will risk it all. If her machine gun shooting style is at 100%, there could be career-closing Gold medal around her neck.

Like the men, there are multiple candidates from the Milan/Cortina medalists, any of whom could take the title. However, and there is always a “however,” a successful dark horse in the elite field of 30 would surprise no one.

The sport remains biathlon…and anything can happen!

Photos: IBU/Vianney Thibaut, Ola Wizor, Nordic Focus